Basketball's analytics revolution has one clear message: three-point shots and layups are more valuable than mid-range shots. This mathematical reality has reshaped how the game is played, coached, and taught at every level.
The Mathematics
Shot value is simple math:
Three-point shot at 35%: Expected value = 1.05 points per attempt
Mid-range shot at 40%: Expected value = 0.80 points per attempt
Layup at 65%: Expected value = 1.30 points per attempt
The mid-range shot must be made at elite percentages (above 50%) to equal the value of an average three-pointer. This math drives modern shot selection.
Floor Spacing
Spacing creates the foundation for modern offense:
Five-out: All five players on the perimeter. Maximum driving lanes but requires shooting from everyone.
Four-out, one-in: Four perimeter players with one post player. Balance of spacing and interior presence.
Corner emphasis: Corner threes are the shortest three-point shot and create strong driving angles.
Movement within spacing: Players must maintain spacing while creating advantages through cutting and screening.
Developing Shooters
More players must shoot threes than ever before:
Form fundamentals: Balance, elbow alignment, follow-through, arc. These basics don't change.
Volume training: Game-speed repetitions in game-like situations.
Shot selection discipline: Know your range. Take good shots, not just open ones.
Shooting off movement: Catch and shoot, off screens, off the dribble. Practice all situations.
Creating Open Threes
Open threes don't happen by accident:
Drive and kick: Penetration draws help defenders, creating open perimeter players.
Ball reversal: Moving the ball side to side shifts the defence and finds openings.
Off-ball screens: Screens away from the ball free shooters for catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Post feeds: Passes into the post draw attention, creating kick-out threes.
When Not to Shoot
Shot selection remains crucial:
Contested vs open: An open mid-range can be better than a heavily contested three.
Time and score: Game situation affects shot value. Sometimes two points is what you need.
Who's shooting: A 40% shooter taking a three beats a 25% shooter taking the same shot.
Offensive rebounds: Some shots create better rebounding opportunities than others.
Defending the Three
Coaches must also think defensively:
Close-out technique: Contest without fouling. Short, choppy steps.
Help positioning: Help defenders must be ready to close out on kicks.
Communication: Calling out screens and rotations prevents open looks.
Rebounding priority: Three-point misses create long rebounds. Box out and pursue.
Key Coaching Points
- Shot value mathematics favour threes and layups over mid-range
- Spacing creates the driving lanes that generate open threes
- All players benefit from three-point shooting development
- Shot selection discipline matters - take good shots, not just any open shots
- Defence must adapt to contest without fouling and rebound long misses
